The rising hostilities between India and Pakistan could mark the first significant opportunity to observe how China’s modern military technology performs in real conflict, especially when compared to established Western systems — and Chinese defense companies are already seeing gains.
This week, shares of AVIC Chengdu Aircraft, a major Chinese defense manufacturer, jumped 40% following claims by Pakistan that it deployed Chinese-made J-10C fighter jets to down Indian aircraft, including the French-origin Rafale, during an aerial clash on Wednesday.
India has neither confirmed any aircraft losses nor officially responded to Pakistan’s allegations. When questioned about the involvement of Chinese aircraft, a spokesperson for China’s Foreign Ministry stated on Thursday that they had no specific information on the matter.
Nevertheless, as Pakistan’s principal arms supplier, China is likely monitoring the situation closely to assess the effectiveness of its military hardware in live combat conditions.
Although China has not engaged in a major war for over 40 years, it has aggressively modernized its military under President Xi Jinping, investing heavily in high-tech weaponry and advanced defense systems.
Pakistan, which China refers to as its “ironclad brother,” has been a key partner in this military modernization push. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), China provided 81% of Pakistan’s arms imports over the past five years.
These exports include cutting-edge fighter jets, missile systems, radar technology, and air-defense platforms — all of which are expected to play a decisive role if hostilities between India and Pakistan escalate. Some of Pakistan’s domestically-produced arms have been co-developed with Chinese firms or rely on Chinese technology and know-how.
“This effectively turns any India-Pakistan military encounter into a testing ground for Chinese defense exports,” said Sajjan Gohel, International Security Director at the London-based Asia-Pacific Foundation.
The Chinese and Pakistani militaries have also deepened their cooperation with joint drills across air, sea, and land, including simulated combat and crew exchange operations.
“Beijing’s growing support for Islamabad — through equipment, training, and AI-driven targeting systems — has gradually shifted the tactical balance,” said Craig Singleton, a senior fellow at the U.S.-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
The current crisis, sparked by a deadly attack on tourists in Kashmir, highlights a larger strategic shift in the region, as China challenges longstanding U.S. influence. India and Pakistan, both nuclear-armed, have fought three wars over Kashmir since their 1947 independence. During the Cold War, the Soviet Union supported India while both the U.S. and China backed Pakistan. Now, a new phase of geopolitical competition is emerging.
Although India has traditionally followed a nonaligned foreign policy, it has grown closer to the United States in recent years. Successive U.S. administrations have promoted stronger ties with India as a counterweight to China, leading New Delhi to increase defense purchases from the U.S., France, and Israel, while moving away from dependency on Russian arms.
At the same time, Pakistan has expanded its strategic and economic ties with China, becoming a central player in the Belt and Road Initiative and solidifying its role as Beijing’s long-term defense partner. While China and the U.S. each supplied about a third of Pakistan’s imported arms in the late 2000s, Pakistan has now stopped purchasing American weapons and increasingly sources its military equipment from China.
According to Siemon Wezeman of SIPRI, China has been supplying arms to Pakistan since the mid-1960s, but its current dominance reflects a broader shift. He explained that U.S. concerns over Pakistan’s nuclear program, lack of democratic governance, and perceived inaction against extremist groups created a vacuum that China quickly filled.
“After the U.S. essentially cut Pakistan off from military support, China seized the opportunity to establish itself as Islamabad’s most dependable ally,” Wezeman noted.
While tensions continue to rise, China has called for de-escalation. Ahead of the current crisis, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi reaffirmed support for Pakistan, describing the two countries as “ironclad friends” in a recent call with his counterpart.
